Record cotton output in top 5 countries
World top five cotton producers are forecast of record output or near record output in 2004-05. The producers are China, US, India, Pakistan and Brazil. The forecast has been provided by the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) which is an association of 41 governments of cotton producing and consuming…
Egytex News Desk
Egytex
Supply and demand estimates suggest that the Cotlook A Index will average 48 cents per pound this season, 20 cents, or 30%, lower than the last season. This will be the sharpest drop in absolute terms since 1985-86, and 1974-75 in relative terms.
The world cotton supply, beginning stocks plus production, is rising sharply to an estimated 31.8 million tonnes in 2004-05, up 2.7 million tonnes (9%) from the last season.
This is the highest world supply ever, six lakh tonnes above the previous record in 2001-02. In volume and in percentage terms, this will be the largest year-to-year increase in world supply since 1984-85.
Beginning stocks shrank from 10.5 million tonne in 2002-03 to an estimated 7.7 million tonne on August 1, 2004, the lowest since 1995-96.
However, rising prices in 2003, good weather and the use of new technologies are leading to world production soaring from 20.6 million tonne in 2003-04 to an estimated 24.1 million tonne in 2004-05, more than offseting the reduction in beginning stocks. World production in 2004-05 is expected to increase 3.5 million tones from last season (17%), and exceed the previous record of world production set in 2001-02 by 2.6 million tonnes. Increases in production are expected in almost all producing countries which is quite exceptional.
World cotton consumption in 2004-05 is being stimulated by lower prices, combined with improving world economic growth despite higher oil prices. Cotton is expected to remain competitive with polyester.
As a result, world mill use is forecast to grow by about 3% in 2004-05 to reach a record of 22 million tonnes, up six lakh tonnes.
World cotton exports are expected to decline from a record of 7.3 million tonnes last season to 6.7 million tonne in 2004-05. As supply is expected to exceed consumption in 2004-05, world ending stocks are forecast to inflate by 2.1 million tonnes to 9.8 million tonnes by July 31, 2005.
Source: Bharattextiles.com.
From the Egytex news archive, first published on 7 November 2004. Figures and names are as reported at the time.
