UK: Global cotton stock to drop 18.97 million bales.

The world agriculture supply demand estimates released by the department, forecast world cotton ending stocks will decline to 41.55 million bales (480 pound each) for 2010/11, 780,000 bales less than the March projection.

The world’s total cotton supply for 2010/11 season is projected at 196.65 million bales, with the total use forecast at 155.25 million bales.

The US is projected to supply 21 million bales, with production pegged at 18.10 million bales. This figure is 220,000 bales lower than the March projection. US consumption has increased by 100,000 bales from last month’s estimate.

Chinese domestic consumption is projected to be 47 million bales, which remains unchanged from the forecast in March.

According to the US Department of Agriculture, Indian mills are estimated to consume 21.5 million bales (480 lbs each). India’s export during the current marketing year is projected at 4.8 million bales. Unchanged from the estimate in March, production is expected to reach 25 million bales of 480 lbs each.

The ending stock in India is expected to drop by 170,000 bales from the March estimate, to 5.35 million bales. This translates to an ending stock 6.85 million Indian bales of 170 kg each. This year, India’s ending stock will be less than the estimated 2009/10 stock of 7.93 million bales of 170 kg each. According to the latest projection, India’ beginning and ending stocks for this marketing year have been lowered since last estimates in March.

Shawn Wade, director of communications for the Lubbock, Texas, based Plains Cottons Growers Inc, said: “It is hard to believe the US started the 2008 marketing year with beginning stocks of 10 million bales and in just three years has seen demand for US cotton shrink that figure by over 85%.

“The journey to today's projected ending stock figure of 1.6 million bales began in 2008 when demand for US cotton exceeded new crop production by 4 million bales. The next year, 2009, the pattern repeated and left us with just 2.95 million bales in carryover at the beginning of the 2010 US cotton marketing year on August 1, 2010.

“This year demand for 2010-crop US cotton has again exceeded what we produced, despite a significant increase in US production levels. Looking forward it appears that cotton supplies worldwide will continue to be constricted as the world responds to the need for more cotton in 2011 and strives to meet the high demand for cotton in developing economies such as China, India, Vietnam and Bangladesh.”