China remains key to cotton prices
World production is increasing by 900,000 tons (5%) to 20.2 million tons in 2003/04. With consumption about 800,000 tons above production, world ending stocks are declining to an estimated 7.8 million tons by 31 July 2004, a 9-year low, and the Cotlook A Index is forecast to average 72 cents per pound in 2003/04.
Egytex News Desk
Egytex
The current level of international prices implies a sharp increase in world cotton production next season. World cotton area is forecast to expand 7% to reach about 35 million hectares in 2004/05, the highest since 1995/96.
Assuming a return to recent average yields, production in China (Mainland) is expected to rebound to a record of 6.3 million tons, up 1.4 million tons (29%). Production in the rest of the world is forecast up 4%, to 15.9 million tons, the highest since 2001/02. World production is expected to reach a record of 22.2 million tons in 2004/05, up 2 million tons, or 10%. Weather will again be critical in 2004.
Cotton consumption in China (Mainland) is projected up 5%, or 350,000 tons, to reach 7.1 million tons in 2004/05, outpacing anticipated domestic production by 800,000 tons. As China (Mainland) will need to replenish stocks, imports are expected to be 1.2 million tons in 2004/05, down 300,000 tons from the record projected for this season. Mill use outside China (Mainland) is expected to decline by some 200,000 tons to 14.1 million tons, a 9-year low.
From the Egytex news archive, first published on 4 March 2004. Figures and names are as reported at the time.
