USDA to Release Cotton Production Estimates in May

The 2007/08 US cotton crop was raised this month to 19.4 million bales (Upland 18.55 million bales and ELS-850,000 bales), as indicated in the March 2008 Cotton Ginning report. USDA will release final production estimates on May 9^th.

With beginning stocks and imports unchanged in April, the season’s cotton supply is now estimated at 28.9 million bales, 1.2 million (4 %) above 2006/07. Slightly offsetting the supply gain was an increase in the estimate for 2007/08 mill use.

The US cotton mill use estimate was raised 100,000 bales this month to 4.7 million, as recent textile activity has stabilized near this level. Despite this, mill use is 5 % below 2006/07 and remains the lowest in nearly a century. US exports, on the other hand, were unchanged this month at 14.5 million bales as world trade projections were marginally lower.

Based on the current forecast, US exports would be their second highest on record behind 2005/06’s 17.5 million bales. The US share of global trade for 2007/08 is estimated at 37 %, equal to the average of the previous 2 seasons. With US production now exceeding demand in 2007/08, ending stocks are projected to rise slightly this season to 9.7 million bales, the largest since 1966/67. However, the stocks to use ratio is currently below that of 2006/07; this season’s ratio is estimated at 50.5 %, compared with nearly 53 % in 2006/07.

Source: US Department of Agriculture